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Some NGADM '13 Round 3 Stats

2013-09-18 21:13:48 by gadogry

Another round! Another onslaught of numbers and low-level statistical jargons!!

First, ranking the 15 submissions by score (bold = advancing to next round)

1. steampianist: 9.54
2. JacobCadmus: 9.27
3. Kor-Rune: 9.25

4. SoundChris: 9.20
5. InYourDreams: 9.09*
6. etherealwinds: 9.04
7. headphoamz: 8.94

8. garlagan: 8.66
9. johnfn: 8.59
10. InvisibleObserver: 8.39

11. midimachine: 8.33
12. ChronoNomad: 8.26
13. dj-Jo: 8.00
14. Wolftacular: 7.51
15. SourJovis: 6.9

*The SkyeWintrest score of InYourDreams is missing in the NGADM post. I'll assume herein that his average and other judges' scores were announced correctly, which implies that SkyeWintrest scored that track an 8.4.

SoundChris and garlagan were the two "unlucky defeats" this round (i.e. score among the top half of the entries but lost due to their opponent doing even better). With 16 contestants paired up this way, one should expect an average of 1.87 unlucky defeats, so... two casualties is right around the norm.

And the data for judge scores:

(Judge: Average / Standard deviation)

Step: 8.75 / 0.80
SkyeWintrest: 8.15 / 1.01
bassfiddlejones: 8.76 / 0.75
Echo: 8.48 / 0.49
alternativesolution: 8.95 / 0.70
Back-From-Purgatory: 8.4 / 1.11
Neon-Bard: 8.68 / 0.76

Again, the standard deviation is a measure of how spread out a judge's 15 scores are, and the higher it is the larger impact they had on winning and losing.

It is notable that the average score went up from last round for ALL seven judges, (which I thought was impossible -- I mean, alternativesolution had an 8.82 average in round 2!). Also, many patterns persisted -- SkyeWintrest and Back-From-Purgatory are still the two harshest judges (in the relative sense), and their SD again lead the field by a considerable margin. That just means that if any contestant is picking a judge to bribe for subsequent rounds, you should consider them first. Echo, on the other hand, achieved a SD of mere 0.49, essentially making himself half a judge in terms of impacting the outcome.

As for the correlation between the judges (i.e. how much judges agree/disagree on the quality of individual submissions overall) Step and Neon-Bard achieved an impossible correlation of 0.916, making them basically two identical judges. Actually, among the 21 correlation scores (one for each pair of judges -- 21 because it's 7 choose 2), 11 of them exceed 0.8, which is widely considered the threshold for being REALLY similar. For comparison, only Step x SkyeWintrest crossed 0.8 in round 2 (and they did it again this round).

The judge pair that agree the least is Step x Echo at 0.544, but still that is quite positive. This means that the judges' opinion of what's good vs what's bad among this round's entries mostly align. This is also reflected when I did the reweighed score by levelling out the averages and SDs of each judge so they have equal impact on the outcome --- despite having varying SDs in the raw scores, the reweighed scores mostly looked the same as the raw scores. This is because the judges (probably unknowingly) had agreed on most things, so who had a larger/smaller say didn't alter the outcome much (unlike in round 1).

Finally, if you still crave more numbers you can get the spreadsheet that has all the aforementioned data. Again, a lot of people put in a lot of hard work to make this contest as awesome as it is, and I can't be thankful enough.

Since it's almost getting to the point where judges outnumber contestants, this would be the last instalment of NGADM stats this year. But I will definitely continue to follow the NGADM, and if there's anything specific you want to know, you can always PM me :)

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